Findings

Earth Map guided an assessment in which different parameters (land productivity, vegetation intensity, precipitation and temperature) were considered. The maps and statistics supported the Government of Kyrgyzstan to identify hazards (anomalies in precipitation and temperature patterns) and sensitivity factors (land productivity dynamics and vegetation intensity) related to climate change impacts, such as landslides or decreasing health conditions of grass which were putting people living in the area and grazing activities in danger. The assessment in Earth Map provided the information to the Government of Kyrgyzstan to identify the drivers of these impacts. 

1.  As can be seen in Figure 2, 25% of the target area (Suzak) which is mainly located in the mountainous region, has a declining productivity in terms of land productivity dynamics[1];

2.  Figure 3 shows that vegetation intensity has declined in some parts of Suzak, especially in the mountainous region. Based on the results of the analysis presented in Figure 2 and 3, the Earth Map user can already assume the presence of grassland degradation and risk of landslides in the mountainous region of Suzak. In order to support the analysis with more data, climatic variables were also assessed;

3. The average total annual precipitation (mm) in Kyrgyzstan has increased by 10% (from 400 mm in 1981 to 440 mm in 2019) in the last 40 years (Figure 4);

4. In order to understand regional differences, the spatial distribution of precipitation anomalies in the whole Kyrgyzstan can be assessed (Figure 5). This indicates a decrease in precipitation in the project target area (mountainous Western part of the country);

5. The same precipitation analysis done at the national level applied to the regional level shows that in the last 40 years the average total annual precipitation (mm) has decreased around 40% (from 537 mm in 1981 to 331 mm in 2019) in the target region Suzak (Figure 6);

6. The target areas were indicated by the Government of Kyrgyzstan as regions with high risk of landslides, but the annual precipitation analysis in Suzak shows a scenario of precipitation decrease (40%). In this case it is important to look at the monthly precipitation sums (Figure 7). From the graph we can observe that negative deviations have been intensified since the 90’s, reflecting the loss of total annual precipitation. Positive deviations continue to happen in spring and autumn as in the last 40 years, demonstrating the presence of erratic rainfalls that can potentially lead to landslides;

7. Further analysis of the daily precipitation (Figure 8), which are not available in Earth Map , shows that heavy rain events increased in number (around 4%), since the 80’s;

8. Looking at the local climate, we can observe that the mean average annual temperature in Suzak has increased from 4,8 °C in 1979 to 5,8 °C in 2019 and has an overall linear upward trend. This can affect the water availability, vegetation intensity and health conditions of grass in the mountain region (Figure 9);

9. The minimum temperature influences the quality of the grass especially when arriving to minus 25°C outside the winter months. As seen in Figure 10, the number of days with temperatures of minus 25 °C outside the winter months increased in the target regions. Most likely this has provoked grassland degradation in the target areas, exacerbating the already existing climate change impacts.

[1] This indicates the intensity and persistence of negative trends and changes of the photosynthetically active vegetation cover over the observed period in the mountainous part.